As I've mentioned a couple of times recently, I have become a complete addict of 270towin.com. I particularly enjoy running their election simulator to see what current state polls are indicating the result will be in the battle for electoral votes. One of the cool things about their simulator is you can look at the results of the last 1,000 simulations run. I'm a stats geek, what can I say?
As recently as a month ago, the simulations stats showed McCain winning 40% or more of the simulations. As of two weeks ago, if my memory serves me correctly McCain was winning 15% or 20% of the simulations. Posted to the right you will find the stats for the last 1,000 simulation as of this morning at around 8AM ET. Remarkably, the election simulator now has Obama winning an incredible 99.6% of simulations run. That means, as of today, if you were to run 1,000 election simulations, McCain would win approximately four of them. And, of those four wins, the biggest victory for McCain would be a narrow victory of just 282 electoral votes.
Yes, I'm optimistic. I am also realistic and I know polls can change very rapidly. If the election were held today, though, Obama would likely win in a blowout. Hopefully the recent trend will continue for Barack.
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