Late Deciders Will Determine Outcome (As Always)

It is important to remember, especially after having watched enthusiastic Democrats and then enthusiastic Republicans rallying at their respective conventions during consecutive weeks, that a good chunk of the electorate still isn't paying close attention to this election. In a close election- which this will undoubtedly be- the voters who decide the winner often make their decision very late in the game.

As we sit here one day less than two months before election day it is instructive to look at exit polling from 2000 and 2004 to get a feel for how many voters still haven't made up their minds between McCain and Obama. In 2000, according to the CNN polls, an astounding 31% of voters decided who they were going to vote for within a month of election day. More than half of that group of late deciders made the decision within a week of election day. There were fewer late deciders in 2004- probably because Bush was an incumbent- but 11% of of voters still made their decision within a week of election day.

Like the past two presidential elections, I'm expecting Obama/McCain to be decided by, at most, a few percentage points. Furthermore, I once again expect that several swing states will be decided by razor thin margins. If that is the case, it will be the last voters to decide who ultimately determine the winner. It makes me wonder what will be the tipping point that pushes those last minute deciders toward one candidate or the other. Will it be the press coverage or a specific world event or a gaffe by one of the candidates that decides it? Will it be a particular TV ad or a swift-boat type attack that provides the margin of victory?