Could Romney have Delivered Michigan for McCain?

Right in the midst of Palin mania, I still find myself thinking that Sarah Palin's appeal is by far the strongest in the reddest of red states. Yes, she will undoubtedly help ensure a Republican rout in Alaska, The deep south, Idaho, Kansas and the Dakotas. That said, any old Republican chosen at random from the phone book could defeat Obama by double digits in those states. But does she push McCain over the top in any of the key swing states? I'm not so sure.

Yes, McCain appears in polls to have gotten stronger in Pennsylvania and Ohio since the RNC. That said, Pennsylvania will probably still swing to the Dems in November and Ohio still looks to be a coin flip as usual. As I tinker endlessly with the innumerable combinations and permutations on my beloved 270towin.com, I keep finding myself coming back to Michigan. Simply put, if the Dems lose Michigan they've probably lost the White House once again. And which potential running mate would have given McCain the best chance of locking up Michigan? Mitt Romney, of course.

I see the core most winnable states for Obama in three distinct groups: 1) Out West (CA, OR, WA, NM), 2) the midwest (MN, IA, WI, IL), and 3) the Northeast (PA, MD and everything northeast of there). With all of these states shaded blue, Obama would have 243 electoral votes and would still need 27 more delegates to reach the magic 270. If he wins Michigan's 17 electoral votes, he reaches 260 and- this is extremely important- puts himself in a position where he can win the Presidency while still losing both Ohio and Florida. With Michigan going to the good guys, Obama could win the race by merely winning one of the three of OH, FL, or Virginia. Without Michigan, the math gets much tougher. Without Michigan, winning Ohio alone would not be enough to put Obama over the top. Without Michigan, Obama could win both Virginia and Colorado (neither of which will be easy) and still lose the White House. Without Michigan, Obama would probably need Florida and we all know how hard that state is to deliver to a Democrat.

Recent polls (see here, here, and here, for instance) are showing an extremely tight race in Michigan. Romney, who won the Michigan Republican primary by 9 points over John McCain and is the son of a three term Michigan Governor, could very well have been the tipping point in swinging Michigan, and perhaps the election, to the GOP.

In November we will hear lots of pundits say that Palin shook up this election for McCain. I won't be suprised, however, if Romney might have been the VP who could have actually won this election for McCain.